| Date | Prediction | Prob. | Deadline | Status | Grade | Issue |
|---|
Calibration
A well-calibrated forecaster assigns 60% to events that happen ~60% of the time.
Calibration chart appears after 5+ predictions are resolved.
Accountability is the credibility engine. Every prediction is recorded with a probability. Every outcome is graded. No hiding.
| Date | Prediction | Prob. | Deadline | Status | Grade | Issue |
|---|
A well-calibrated forecaster assigns 60% to events that happen ~60% of the time.
Calibration chart appears after 5+ predictions are resolved.